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稳增长不能依赖“土地财政”

新开传奇sf网站 政策的利好对于致力打造成氢电混合动力车的长江汽车而言,无异于一针强心剂。

2018-10-2410:34  来源:经济参考报
 

  地方政府对于稳增长的诉求,通过高歌猛进的房价和高企的地价可窥一斑。但是,稳增长不能靠“土地财政”发力。这是当前经济决策者们需要警醒的一点。

  在实施积极财政政策,适度提高赤字率的背景下,大量的基础建设和重大工程投资需要地方政府牵头落实,地方政府为了完成稳增长任务,对资金的渴望通过土地价格得到了体现。这也使得今年以来地价出现了全面攀升。财政部数据显示,今年前8个月,全国国有土地使用权出让收入20057亿元,同比增长14%。从2015年全年土地出让收入同比下降21.4%,到重新出现两位数的增长,涨幅惊人。

  地价的不断攀升带来了房地产销售量价齐涨。据伟业我爱我家集团市场研究院统计,北京二手住宅近几周平均每天的网签量为一千套左右。国家统计局发布的8月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格统计数据显示,8月份房价继续上涨,一二三线城市新建商品住宅和二手住宅价格环比涨幅均比上月有所扩大。其中,北京新房环比上涨3.8%,二手房环比上涨3.9%。

  地方对土地财政的依赖同时急剧上升,苏州前8个月的土地依赖指数高达82.6%,杭州、合肥、南京等城市依赖度指数都超过50%。

  有业内人士提醒,此轮地价和房价的上涨并没有带来实质性的社会财富增加,甚至连地产企业也没有受益。A股125家上市房企的半年报显示,净利润同比下滑的房企有53家。其中,亏损房企有23家,且均已连续多年净利润下滑。即使今年上半年出现了市场成交爆发,房企平均利润率依然下调到8.15%。而2015年同期,利润率是10.1%。

  这种情况十分危险,高价的地和房产并没有将资金向实体经济输送,也没有拉动其他产业增长。“土地财政”获得的“稳增长”效果只能落到数字上,最终都会面临高杠杆的风险。因为地价高昂,开发商不得不以加杠杆的方式拿地,这些杠杆的成本转化成为房价,需要买房人消化。而买房人无非两类,一类是居住者,那就只能通过高杠杆,或者以高价卖掉现有房产为手段来购买新房;另一类是投资者,为了更多地买房,也必然采取的是高杠杆方式。

  这样一来,层层杠杆之下,房价被逐步推高。与此同时,为了保证投资收益,从政府到买房人被捆到了一条船上,不断利用各种手段来推高房价,降低各自的杠杆风险。长此以往,地总有卖完的一天,泡沫也总有破灭的那一天,系统性风险将随之出现。

  这一循环已经逐步形成死扣,要解开唯有政府出面,应该明确土地财政无益于稳增长目标,鼓励地方政府放弃一些眼前利益,谋求更长远发展。中央决策部门也应尽快推进财税改革,健全财税体制。为中央政府和地方政府的事权、财权分开而明确分配体制,帮助地方政府摆脱“土地财政”的依赖。

  当前,调结构、转型升级已经成为下一个经济增长的主流方向,在“土地财政”逐渐走到危险境地的情况下,已经容不得地方政府再犹豫和博弈了。中央政府需要引导地方转变增长方式,寻找地方适合的产业和核心竞争力。在此轮房价上涨中的二三线城市,比一线城市有着更为迫切的转型压力——当游资散去,这些城市的房价将会面临较大的调整风险。(赵晶)

(责编:丁亦鑫、董菁)
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